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All HHS Contracts β€” December 26, 2025

All HHS Contracts

8 total filings analysed

Executive Summary

HHS contracts totaling $753M highlight sustained CMS spending on program integrity ($333M across top 3 awards to Deloitte and GD IT), bullish for IT/consulting firms with multi-year revenue through 2026-27. BARDA's $178M in biotech R&D for pandemic countermeasures bolsters Modex Therapeutics and Cepheid (Danaher), with options up to $95M more. Neutral signals dominate non-profits in influenza research ($238M total), offering limited equity upside amid long-term funding visibility.

Tracking the trend? Catch up on the prior All HHS Contracts digest from December 23, 2025.

Investment Signals(3)

  • CMS Program Integrity Boom(HIGH)
    β–²

    Top 3 contracts ($333M obligated) to Deloitte ($116M) and GD IT ($217M combined) via full/open competition provide cost-plus revenue through 2026-27 with 56-59% outlayed.

  • BARDA Pandemic R&D Validation(HIGH)
    β–²

    $178M obligated to Modex ($104M, options to $198M) and Cepheid ($75M, options to $113M) signals government priority for countermeasures, with 25-43% outlayed.

  • GD IT Double Exposure(MEDIUM)
    β–²

    Two CMS awards totaling $217M (56-59% outlayed) reinforce competitive strength in engineering/IT services through potential 2027.

Risk Flags(2)

  • Execution[HIGH RISK]
    β–Ό

    Long performance periods (2026-2030 across 7/8 contracts) expose to funding cuts, audits, or program shifts; subawards average 20-40% of value in top awards.

  • Market[MEDIUM RISK]
    β–Ό

    R&D uncertainties in biotech/influenza contracts ($367M total) with unexercised options ($200M+ potential) tied to technical milestones.

Opportunities(2)

  • β—†

    $95M+ in unexercised options across Modex ($95M), Cepheid ($38M), St Jude ($111M), Icahn ($55M) for R&D expansion.

  • β—†

    Follow-on potential from CMS integrity ($333M base) and BARDA validation in pandemic prep.

Sector Themes(3)

  • β—†

    44% of value ($333M) in program integrity modeling/IT to non-small biz leaders via open competition.

  • β—†

    24% of value ($178M) via BARDA for COVID/flu countermeasures R&D with long horizons to 2030.

  • β—†

    32% of value ($238M) to hospitals/universities for influenza CEIRR, cost-no-fee structure.

Watch List(3)

  • πŸ‘

    {"entity"=>"General Dynamics IT", "reason"=>"$217M CMS exposure (29% of total value) with $124M outlayed and $20M options.", "trigger"=>"Option exercises or 2027 extension announcements"}

  • πŸ‘

    {"entity"=>"Modex Therapeutics", "reason"=>"$104M BARDA award (options to $198M) for multispecific antibodies in pandemic prep.", "trigger"=>"Option funding or clinical milestone progress"}

  • πŸ‘

    {"entity"=>"Cepheid (Danaher)", "reason"=>"$75M BARDA diagnostics platform with $38M options through potential 2029.", "trigger"=>"Outlay acceleration or extension award"}

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