Executive Summary
The digest covers 30 federal contract records totaling $1,703,692,365 in aggregate obligation, all classified as civilian with zero defense-related awards. The mix is dominated by Department of Veterans Affairs construction and health-insurance orders, Department of Agriculture Forest Service airtanker and fire-aviation delivery orders, and Homeland Security IT and border-security work.
The highest-materiality record is TriWest Healthcare Alliance's $900,485,186 VA delivery order, though its one-month performance window and $0 outlayed make the headline value an unreliable indicator of realized revenue. Nearly every record carries a neutral signal (average strength 3.2/10), so conviction is low across the set. The principal watch item is the gap between obligated and outlayed values, which ranges from $0 to roughly 84% spent, and the ambiguity around award-date versus performance-period sequencing in several records.
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Tracking the trend? Catch up on the prior Contract Deobligations Alert digest from October 01, 2026.
Investment Signals (6)
- TriWest Healthcare Alliance $900.5M VA order shows unverified sequencing and no outlays (LOW)▲
The $900,485,186 VA delivery order has an award date of 2026-10-07 after its 2026-09-01 to 2026-09-30 performance period, with $0 outlayed. The data does not establish whether this is a recurring periodic order, so the headline value should not be treated as durable revenue.
- Neptune Aviation Services receives two Forest Service airtanker orders totaling about $58.8M (MEDIUM)▲
Neptune Aviation Services holds two Forest Service delivery orders ($29,576,174 and $29,237,493), each with roughly 82-83% outlayed and potential end dates extending to 2028-12-31. Option exercise and extension decisions are the near-term catalysts.
- Anduril Industries $42.1M CBP Air and Marine delivery order with 66% outlayed (MEDIUM)▲
Anduril Industries' DHS/CBP Air and Marine Contracting Division delivery order is firm fixed price, competed full and open, with $27,713,957 outlayed against $42,066,939 obligated through 2027-06-30. The strong outlay pace supports near-term execution, though the NAICS/PSC mismatch in the record needs clarification.
- Stantec Consulting $21.7M VA A/E contract shows only 13% outlayed after 17 years (MEDIUM)▲
Stantec's VA Office of Construction & Facilities Management A/E contract has only $2,920,797 outlayed against $21,743,206 obligated, and the recipient is foreign-owned and not a small business. The low outlay rate limits the contract's value as a revenue signal.
- Priority Fulfillment Services $29.1M Mint order has unclear scope tied to USPS Trust Account (LOW)▲
The U.S. Mint delivery order to Priority Fulfillment Services is described only as 'USPS TRUST ACCOUNT', and its NAICS 518210 and PSC DA01 codes do not clearly align with that description. Scope ambiguity makes the award hard to underwrite despite 79% outlayed.
- Booz Allen Hamilton GSA $38.5M order has potential to grow toward $373M ceiling (MEDIUM)▲
Booz Allen Hamilton's GSA time-and-materials order has $38,452,810 obligated against a $373,036,880 base-plus-options ceiling, with $0 outlayed and a potential end date of 2031-07-19. Growth in obligations would be a material upside catalyst, though only about 10% is currently committed.
Risk Flags (5)
- Execution [MEDIUM RISK]▼
Several VA construction awards to small and service-disabled veteran-owned firms show $0 outlayed, including Valiant Construction's $23.9M and $19.4M orders and R.E.D. Construction's $19.9M order, leaving execution unverified.
- Budget [MEDIUM RISK]▼
Several records have potential end dates running to 2028-2031 but obligations covering only a fraction of ceiling values, so funding depends on continued appropriations and option exercises.
- Execution [LOW RISK]▼
NTT DATA's CDC application hosting order (current end 2024-01-10) appears expired relative to the data date, with no extension or successor award shown in the record.
- Regulatory [LOW RISK]▼
Westat's Department of Education contract ended 2023-03-31 with about $9.0M unoutlayed, and the record does not show whether it was extended or followed on.
- Concentration [MEDIUM RISK]▼
Forest Service airtanker and fire-aviation awards are concentrated among a small set of recipients (Neptune Aviation, Aero Air, Helicopter Transport Services, Rotak, Billings Flying Service), exposing these firms to seasonal and funding-cycle variability.
Opportunities (3)
- ◆
Booz Allen Hamilton's GSA order has the largest ceiling growth potential among the set, with $38.5M obligated against $373.0M base-plus-options.
- ◆
Several small and service-disabled veteran-owned firms (Valiant Construction, SIGO VALIANT JV II, R.E.D. Construction, CAS FSE JV II) hold VA and CDC set-aside awards totaling over $90M in combined obligation.
- ◆
Accenture Federal Services' CBP cybersecurity operations order has a $121.4M base-plus-options ceiling against $14.8M obligated, supporting follow-on growth if options are exercised.
Sector Themes (3)
- ◆
The VA is the most frequent awarding agency in this set, with awards for hospital construction, boiler and generator work, and health insurance administration totaling several hundred million dollars in aggregate obligation.
- ◆
Forest Service incident aviation delivery orders make up a cluster of awards to airtanker and helicopter operators, several with potential end dates extending to 2028-2029.
- ◆
DHS awards span border air operations, cybersecurity operations, IT field support, and budget-integration software, with a mix of large primes and mid-sized firms.
Watch List (5)
- 👁
{"entity" => "TriWest Healthcare Alliance Corp", "reason" => "$900.5M VA order with $0 outlayed and a one-month performance period; the award date follows the performance period.", "trigger" => "Verification of award-date sequencing and outlay progression in the next data snapshot"}
- 👁
{"entity" => "Neptune Aviation Services, Inc.", "reason" => "Two Forest Service orders totaling about $58.8M obligated, roughly 82-83% outlayed, with potential end dates to 2028-12-31.", "trigger" => "Option exercises and extension decisions around the 2026-12-31 current end date"}
- 👁
{"entity" => "Anduril Industries, Inc.", "reason" => "$42.1M CBP Air and Marine delivery order with 66% outlayed through 2027-06-30; record shows NAICS/PSC mismatch.", "trigger" => "Quarterly outlay progression and any follow-on CBP delivery orders"}
- 👁
{"entity" => "Booz Allen Hamilton Inc", "reason" => "GSA order with a $373.0M base-plus-options ceiling against $38.5M obligated and $0 outlayed.", "trigger" => "First reported outlays and option exercise beyond 2027-01-19"}
- 👁
{"entity" => "Stantec Consulting Services Inc", "reason" => "VA A/E contract with only 13% outlayed after 17 years; foreign-owned parent.", "trigger" => "Outlay progression and any option or modification before the 2027-04-22 end date"}
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