Executive Summary
Three contract option exercises totaling $993,948,995 in obligations, all civilian with zero defense-related awards, highlight bullish signals in DHS detention logistics and IT services for GSA and VA. The highest-conviction signal is Acquisition Logistics LLC's $598,444,871 DHS award for ICE detention services in El Paso, TX, representing a self-certified small disadvantaged business win under full and open competition with potential upside to $1.34B through 2027. General Dynamics One Source LLC secures $224,880,318 from GSA for longstanding IT systems design, while Booz Allen Hamilton Inc. gains $170,623,805 from VA for benefits enterprise services, both with significant option ceilings. Dominant themes center on civilian agency commitments to logistics consulting and IT/business applications support. A key risk is execution uncertainty from zero outlays on two awards and negative -$60,375 outlayed on General Dynamics, coupled with high pricing risk on firm fixed-price structures.
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Investment Signals(3)
- Acquisition Logistics LLC Wins $598M DHS Delivery Order for ICE Detention Logistics(HIGH)▲
Acquisition Logistics LLC received a $598,444,871 obligation via administrative transfer from DHS ICE for detention, transportation, and medical services at Camp East Montana, with base + options up to $1,339,875,022 through 2027-09-30 under firm fixed price for NAICS 541614 logistics consulting.
- General Dynamics One Source LLC Secures $225M GSA IT Services Extension(MEDIUM)▲
General Dynamics One Source LLC awarded $224,880,318 obligation under cost-plus-award-fee for computer systems design services (NAICS 541512) via GSA Federal Acquisition Service, with potential to $616,859,400 through 2024-01-07 despite negative -$60,375 outlayed.
- Booz Allen Hamilton Inc. Lands $171M VA Benefits IT Services Order(MEDIUM)▲
Booz Allen Hamilton Inc. received $170,623,805 obligation from VA Technology Acquisition Center for benefits enterprise services under firm fixed price (NAICS 541512), with base + options up to $456,716,346 through potential 2028-04-16 and zero outlays to date.
Risk Flags(2)
- Execution[HIGH RISK]▼
Zero outlays on Acquisition Logistics LLC's $598M DHS award and Booz Allen Hamilton Inc.'s $171M VA order signal potential delays in revenue realization despite obligations; General Dynamics One Source LLC shows anomalous negative -$60,375 outlayed on $225M GSA contract.
- Budget[MEDIUM RISK]▼
High contract pricing risk on firm fixed-price structures for Acquisition Logistics LLC ($598M DHS) and Booz Allen Hamilton Inc. ($171M VA), with phased option ends through 2027-2028 amid civilian agency budget cycles.
Opportunities(2)
- ◆
Acquisition Logistics LLC's self-certified small disadvantaged business status positions it for further DHS/ICE logistics expansions beyond $598M obligation to $1.34B potential through 2027-09-30.
- ◆
General Dynamics One Source LLC and Booz Allen Hamilton Inc. have substantial GSA/VA IT ceilings ($617M and $457M) for task order growth in computer systems design.
Sector Themes(2)
- ◆
Acquisition Logistics LLC's $598M obligation for detention/transport/medical services at El Paso facility underscores DHS focus on compliance and removals logistics under full and open competition.
- ◆
General Dynamics One Source LLC ($225M GSA) and Booz Allen Hamilton Inc. ($171M VA) reflect ongoing IT systems design and enterprise support investments with large option ceilings.
Watch List(3)
- 👁
{"entity"=>"Acquisition Logistics LLC", "reason"=>"$598M DHS obligation with zero outlays and high pricing risk on firm fixed-price logistics support through 2026-04-17 current end.", "trigger"=>"outlay progress and option exercises toward $1.34B by 2027-09-30"}
- 👁
{"entity"=>"General Dynamics One Source LLC", "reason"=>"$225M GSA IT obligation with negative -$60,375 outlayed nearing 2024-01-07 end.", "trigger"=>"resolution of negative outlay and obligation changes toward $617M ceiling"}
- 👁
{"entity"=>"Booz Allen Hamilton Inc.", "reason"=>"$171M VA IT order starting 2026-04-17 with zero outlays and potential to $457M.", "trigger"=>"initial outlays and option exercises beyond 2027-04-16"}
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