High-Value Federal Grants ($5M+) — October 01, 2026

Nelnet ($988.7M) and MAXIMUS ($764.4M) have both outlayed above their base values ($1.64B and $1.10B respectively), signaling strong government demand and potential scope expansion for student loan servicing through December 2024.

Both Education Department contracts expire on the same date, setting up a competitive re-compete that could reshape market share for student loan servicing providers.

Despite a 11-year, $418.7M firm-fixed-price award for pandemic vaccine R&D, only $1.9M has been outlaid, raising execution risk and uncertainty about ramp-up timing.

SAIC's cost-plus-award-fee delivery order for AFAMS training support through December 2025 shows sustained DOD investment in modeling and simulation, though 267 subawards ($477.5M) reduce direct revenue capture.

Two contracts (Nelnet and MAXIMUS) represent 46% of total digest value and both expire on the same date, creating concentrated re-compete risk for the Department of Education's loan servicing portfolio.

Nelnet and MAXIMUS are on firm-fixed-price contracts with total outlays exceeding base values, indicating potential cost overruns or scope creep that could pressure margins if not managed.

Advanced Technology International's BARDA contract has only $1.9M outlaid against a $563.7M ceiling, suggesting budget execution risk or delayed program ramp-up that could impair revenue recognition.

SAIC's AFAMS contract shows a negative outlayed amount (-$185,723), indicating deobligations exceeding spending, which may signal early-stage execution issues or scope adjustments.

The Department of Education's $1.75B in loan servicing awards to Nelnet and MAXIMUS, with outlays exceeding base values, suggests potential for contract extensions or follow-on awards beyond 2024.

SAIC's $526M AFAMS contract signals sustained DOD investment in training and simulation, with potential for follow-on task orders under the GSA FEDSIM vehicle through 2025.

Advanced Technology International's 11-year BARDA contract for pandemic vaccine R&D could ramp significantly if new pandemic threats emerge or BARDA increases funding, given the large ceiling.

The Department of Education awarded $1.75B (46% of digest value) to Nelnet and MAXIMUS for direct loan services, with outlays exceeding base values, indicating strong and growing demand for civilian financial management services.

SAIC's $526M AFAMS contract via GSA FEDSIM highlights the DOD's continued reliance on GSA procurement vehicles for large-scale training and engineering support, with cost-plus structures reducing profit risk.

Advanced Technology International's $564M BARDA contract for vaccine R&D through 2035 reflects a long-term government commitment to biodefense, though early-stage outlays are minimal.

{"entity" => "Nelnet Servicing LLC", "reason" => "Holds $988.7M Education contract with outlays exceeding base; re-compete risk in late 2024.", "trigger" => "Re-compete announcement or contract extension before December 31, 2024"}

{"entity" => "MAXIMUS Education LLC", "reason" => "Holds $764.4M Education contract with outlays exceeding base; same re-compete risk as Nelnet.", "trigger" => "Re-compete announcement or contract extension before December 31, 2024"}

{"entity" => "Science Applications International Corporation", "reason" => "AFAMS contract has negative outlay; monitor for execution ramp and option exercises.", "trigger" => "Quarterly outlay trend reversal or modification announcement"}

{"entity" => "Advanced Technology International", "reason" => "Large BARDA contract with minimal outlay; watch for ramp-up signals.", "trigger" => "New outlay obligations or BARDA funding announcements"}