Mega Contracts Monitor ($100M+) — October 17, 2026

The firm fixed-price structure places cost-overrun risk on the contractor for 24/7/365 armed transportation under ICE's 287(g) program in Texas. Pricing risk is rated high, and total outlays were reported as $0 at the time of the award.

Only about 26% of the $382,324,910 base-plus-options value is currently obligated, so option exercises through the potential end date of 2030-08-31 represent the main upside catalyst. Exercise would materially lift the company's federal services backlog.

The award signals ongoing federal funding for ICE detention and removal functions, though the data does not establish the budget trajectory for this program. The contract is a civilian, non-defense award and carries no defense-sector read-through.

GardaWorld's firm fixed-price contract for armed transportation carries high pricing risk, with cost overruns borne by the contractor. Total outlays were $0 at award, so execution performance will not be evident until the 2026-09-01 start date produces billing.

Approximately 74% of the $382,324,910 potential value remains unobligated, so the revenue base is highly dependent on discretionary option exercise by DHS/ICE rather than committed funding.

The 287(g) program and ICE detention policy are subject to shifting federal priorities, creating scope and continuity risk for a contract tied to Texas operations. The data does not establish the program's policy trajectory.

If DHS/ICE exercises the remaining option periods, GardaWorld Federal Services LLC could expand its obligated value toward the $382,324,910 ceiling, substantially increasing federal services backlog.

The NAICS 561612 (Security Guards and Patrol Services) and PSC S206 classification indicates labor-intensive security services demand within civilian federal agencies, a niche where contractors with armed-transport capability may compete for similar awards.

The single award reflects continued federal funding for ICE custody and removal operations under the 287(g) program, delivered through outsourced armed ground transportation. The data does not establish the broader budget trajectory for this function.

{"entity" => "GardaWorld Federal Services LLC", "reason" => "The $100,467,801 obligation covers only about 26% of the $382,324,910 base-plus-options ceiling, and the firm fixed-price structure concentrates execution risk with total outlays reported at $0 at award.", "trigger" => "First outlay reporting after the 2026-09-01 start date and the first option exercise decision in the 2027 cycle"}