New Federal Contractors — December 23, 2025

Top 5 contracts exceed $81B obligated, with $20B outlayed and extensions to 2030, providing decade-long visibility for primes.

11 GSA awards total $3.2B obligated (+$6B options), 70%+ outlayed on average, signaling multi-year scaling in engineering/IT for non-smalls like Booz Allen, CACI, Peraton.

HHS contracts like Noridian ($483M, 81% outlayed), Companion Data ($396M, 70% outlayed), McKesson ($153M, +$8B options) indicate recurring revenue in Medicare processing and vaccine distribution.

2026 cliff for 20+ contracts (e.g., Savannah River, Boeing ISS, Argonne) risks non-renewal or recompetition amid $40B+ expiring value.

High subawards (avg 20% of value, up to $673M in Aerodyne) across 25 contracts introduce subcontractor delays/dependencies.

Low outlays on fresh awards (e.g., Booz Allen $353M at $0, Peraton $277M at $0) signal funding delays despite high potentials.

$30B+ unexercised options (e.g., McKesson $8B ceiling, Booz Allen $2.6B, CACI $1.3B) offer 30-300% uplift on obligated values.

DOE nuclear waste/tank ops ($26B combined) and NASA space sustainment signal rising federal spend on remediation/space infrastructure.

Small/SDVOSB set-asides (e.g., Bluestag $649M ceiling, Aerodyne $531M, Frequentis $145M) position for non-competitive follow-ons.

4 contracts total $57B (62% portfolio) for M&O at Savannah River, Argonne, Hanford, Stanford accelerator, mostly cost-plus through 2026-27.

8 awards sum $25B for ISS, crew transport, facilities at Johnson/Stennis/Goddard, with SpaceX/Lockheed extensions to 2030.

11 contracts ~$3B+ potentials in defense R&D, IT hosting, engineering via FEDSIM/AAS, high execution (60% avg outlay).

{"entity"=>"Fluor Corporation (Savannah River $25B)", "reason"=>"Largest single award, 36% outlayed with $12B options; DOE nuclear proxy.", "trigger"=>"2026 recompetition RFP or option exercise announcement"}

{"entity"=>"Boeing (ISS $22B)", "reason"=>"33-year contract nearing end with low 11% outlay; space revenue stabilizer.", "trigger"=>"NASA ISS transition funding clarity by mid-2026"}

{"entity"=>"McKesson ($153M + $8B options)", "reason"=>"Vaccine distribution ceiling dwarfs obligation; HHS recurring potential.", "trigger"=>"Initial option exercises signaling CDC scale-up"}

{"entity"=>"SpaceX (Commercial Crew $3B)", "reason"=>"Firm-fixed to 2030, 83% outlayed; private but impacts space peers.", "trigger"=>"Post-certification task orders or Starship integration"}