Executive Summary
The single contract analyzed represents a $248.4M civilian award from NASA to Universities Space Research Association (USRA) for academic mission R&D services, with zero defense-related obligations. The cost-plus-fixed-fee structure provides low profit volatility but capped upside, typical of nonprofit research contracts.
The highest-conviction signal is neutral, reflecting stable near-term revenue but significant renewal risk as the contract expires in November 2024. Key watch items include NASA's budget trajectory for Ames Research Center and USRA's ability to secure follow-on work, given $143.6M already outlayed.
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Tracking the trend? Catch up on the prior New Federal Contractors digest from September 25, 2026.
Investment Signals (1)
- USRA Contract Expiration Risk: $248.4M NASA Award Ends November 2024 (HIGH)▲
The cost-plus-fixed-fee contract with NASA Ames Research Center has no options beyond November 30, 2024, creating a near-term revenue cliff for USRA. Only $143.6M of the $248.4M total obligation has been outlayed, implying ~$105M remains at risk if renewal fails.
Risk Flags (2)
- Concentration [HIGH RISK]▼
USRA's revenue is highly concentrated in this single $248.4M NASA contract, representing an estimated $29.1M annual revenue stream. Nonprofit status limits diversification into commercial or defense markets, amplifying renewal risk.
- Budget [MEDIUM RISK]▼
Civilian agency R&D budgets (NASA) face continuing resolution (CR) uncertainty in October-December periods, potentially delaying follow-on awards. The contract's end date coincides with a CR-prone window, increasing renewal timeline risk.
Opportunities (1)
- ◆
NASA's continued investment in academic mission R&D services (NAICS 541712) suggests stable or growing budget for physical, engineering, and life sciences research at Ames Research Center. USRA's incumbent position provides a competitive edge for follow-on awards.
Sector Themes (1)
- ◆
NASA's $248.4M award to USRA for general science and technology R&D (PSC AJ12) underscores sustained federal investment in academic research infrastructure, even as defense spending dominates headlines. Cost-plus pricing reduces contractor risk but caps upside.
Watch List (2)
- 👁
{"entity" => "Universities Space Research Association", "reason" => "Sole contract in digest with $248.4M value and impending November 2024 expiration; renewal outcome will determine revenue continuity.", "trigger" => "Re-compete announcement or follow-on award before November 30, 2024"}
- 👁
{"entity" => "NASA Ames Research Center", "reason" => "Agency's budget for academic mission services directly impacts USRA's contract renewal and broader civilian R&D contracting trends.", "trigger" => "FY2025 NASA budget request and CR status in Q4 2024"}
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