Significant Contract Modifications ($10M+) — December 25, 2025

Five DHS awards (TSA, ICE, CBP) total $737M obligation (24% of stream), with full execution on Leidos ($98M outlayed) and rapid spend on Four Points AWS ($72M outlayed), underscoring demand for screening tech and cloud services.

Four DOE contracts obligate $530M (17%), with KeyLogic ($114M outlayed) and Navarro ($104M) showing strong cash flow in NETL support and NV remediation, potential $1B+ with options.

Four NASA awards total $646M obligation, with Axient ($159M outlayed) and RSI-Quantitech ($155M) providing revenue visibility to 2027 for space/engineering support.

$292M obligated (10% of stream) with $3.7B potential via GSA, no outlays yet but full competition win signals multi-year training revenue ramp.

40% aggregate obligation un-outlayed ($1.2B), with 4 contracts at $0 outlay (Vertex $292M, Tribalco $165M, Modern Tech $135M), risking funding delays.

Options comprise 60%+ of ceilings in 12/19 contracts (e.g., Lumen $400M, Peraton $363M), non-exercise could cap value at current $3B.

Firm fixed price in 7 contracts ($900M+ obligated) exposes margins to cost overruns over 2-8 year terms (e.g., Tribalco 2-month sprint).

$4.2B unexercised options across stream, led by Modern Tech ($491M upside), Vertex ($3.4B), Peraton ($363M).

Small/disadvantaged biz set-asides in 9/19 (47%, $1.1B obligated) favor repeat wins in DHS/DOE/NASA (e.g., Four Points, Navarro).

Extensions to 2029-2032 in 6 contracts (e.g., Lumen DOI to 2032, Analogic TSA to 2032) align current/potential ends.

$737M across TSA/CT scanners, radios, HR/IT (Analogic, Tribalco, Leidos), with 70% avg outlay progress.

1.2B obligated to 2028+ in engineering/remediation/space (KeyLogic, Axient), cost-plus structures ensure steady revenue.

Four Points AWS ($138M CBP), Peraton VA ($121M IaaS) highlight SDVOSB wins in federal cloud migration.

{"entity"=>"Vertex Aerospace", "reason"=>"Largest ceiling $3.7B (54% potential stream value), $0 outlay signals ramp risk/reward.", "trigger"=>"First $50M outlay or option exercise"}

{"entity"=>"Modern Technology Solutions", "reason"=>"GSA ARCWERX $625M Artemis R&D, small biz set-aside with $491M options, $0 outlay.", "trigger"=>"NASA Artemis milestones or subaward ramps"}

{"entity"=>"Peraton Enterprise Solutions", "reason"=>"$484M VA IaaS ceiling ($363M options), firm fixed price to 2028 amid low $36M outlay.", "trigger"=>"Outlay acceleration >$50M/quarter"}