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Significant Contract Modifications ($10M+) — September 12, 2026

Significant Contract Modifications ($10M+)

By Gunpowder Editorial ·

7 total filings analysed

Executive Summary

This digest of seven government contracts, totaling $662.1 million in obligations, is overwhelmingly civilian in nature (6 out of 7 awards), driven primarily by Department of Homeland Security (DHS) spending and a single large NASA award.

The highest-conviction signal is a **bullish $133.7 million sole-source contract to ACENTRA HEALTH LLC from ICE** for medical claims processing, indicating an entrenched competitive position. The aggregate obligation is significant, but the digest is neutral on signal strength (4.9/10 average), with over $280 million tied to an expired NASA contract (ASRC Research) that provides no current investment relevance. Key risks include short performance periods on fixed-price contracts from ACENTRA and CIANBRO HARKINS, and a sole-source award at ULA that invites protest risk. The dominant sector theme is persistent DHS investment in border security and detention infrastructure, with secondary exposure to NASA’s Artemis program.

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Tracking the trend? Catch up on the prior Significant Contract Modifications ($10M+) digest from September 04, 2026.

Investment Signals (3)

  • ACENTRA HEALTH LLC’s Sole-Source DHS Win Signals Strong Incumbent Moat ($133.7M) (HIGH)
    ▲

    Acentra Health secured a $133.7 million firm-fixed-price contract from ICE for medical claims processing, awarded non-competitively and with 30% ($40.3M) already outlayed. This signals a durable, sole-source revenue stream and likely incumbent advantage in DHS’s detention medical support operations.

  • ULA’s Sole-Source NASA Centaur Upper Stage Award for Artemis ($59.5M Base, $177.4M Ceiling) (MEDIUM)
    ▲

    ULA received a non-competed, firm-fixed-price contract from NASA for Centaur upper stages under the Artemis program, with a total potential value of $177.4M through 2031. The sole-source award and deep-space exploration focus create a catalyst for stable, long-term revenue execution.

  • Expired ASRC Research NASA Contract ($280.2M) Distorts Aggregate Value; No Current Revenue (HIGH)
    ▲

    The largest contract in the digest is an expired 2013 NASA IT services award to ASRC RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS LLC. It contributes $280.2 million to the total but provides no current earnings visibility, inflating the aggregate figure and reducing overall signal quality.

Risk Flags (3)

  • ACENTRA HEALTH LLC Fixed-Price Execution Risk on $133.7M ICE Contract [HIGH RISK]
    ▼

    The $133.7M ICE contract is firm-fixed-price and runs only one year (2025-2026), transferring cost overrun risk to Acentra. Any claims processing disruptions or cost overruns could compress margins.

  • CIANBRO HARKINS JOINT VENTURE Fixed-Price Border Station Construction ($59.75M) [MEDIUM RISK]
    ▼

    The $59.75M firm-fixed-price delivery order for a Border Patrol station in Houlton, Maine, subjects CIANBRO HARKINS to cost overrun risk on a complex design-build project over three years (2026-2029). Competitive award without set-aside increases execution pressure.

  • DHS Concentration Risk: Three Awards Totaling ~$261M [MEDIUM RISK]
    ▼

    Three of seven contracts (ACENTRA, SMITHS DETECTION, CIANBRO HARKINS) are from DHS/TSA/CBP, totaling approximately $261 million. Any DHS budget cuts or continuing resolution disruptions could threaten follow-on awards.

Opportunities (3)

  • Border Infrastructure Buildout via CBP & ICE Contracts
    ◆

    The $59.75M CIANBRO HARKINS Border Patrol station award and ACENTRA’s $133.7M medical claims processing contract for ICE highlight sustained DHS investment in border security facilities and detention support operations.

  • ULA’s Artemis Sole-Source Position for Upper Stages ($177.4M Ceiling)
    ◆

    The non-competed NASA award to ULA for Centaur upper stages supporting the Artemis program positions the company as a critical supplier for heavy-lift launch, with ceiling of $177.4M through 2031. Sole-source awards reduce competitive threat.

  • TSA Security Screening Equipment Pipeline via SMITHS DETECTION ($67.7M)
    ◆

    The $67.7M TSA delivery order for medium speed explosive detection systems, albeit completed, signals continued DHS procurement of automated screening technology. Future IDIQ renewals could provide recurring revenue for Smiths Detection.

Sector Themes (3)

  • ◆

    Two DHS contracts—ACENTRA’s $133.7M medical claims processing for ICE and CIANBRO HARKINS’ $59.75M Border Patrol station—demonstrate sustained investment in detention support and physical infrastructure, even amid budget uncertainty.

  • ◆

    ULA’s $59.5M sole-source award for Centaur upper stages, with $177.4M ceiling through 2031, aligns with bipartisan support for deep-space exploration. Sole-source awards signal strategic supplier lock-in, reducing competitive threat for ULA’s parent entities.

  • ◆

    NASA’s expired $280M ACITS IT contract and the DHS medical claims processing award both fall under professional, scientific, and technical services (NAICS 541512, 518210), indicating broad civilian agency demand for outsourced IT and administrative support.

Watch List (5)

  • 👁

    {"entity" => "ACENTRA HEALTH LLC", "reason" => "Sole-source $133.7M ICE contract with short performance period (2025-2026) creates execution risk; non-competitive award may face GAO protest.", "trigger" => "Contract end date 2026-10-24; any GAO protest filings; option exercise for extension"}

  • 👁

    {"entity" => "UNITED LAUNCH ALLIANCE (ULA)", "reason" => "NASA Artemis sole-source $59.5M base award with $177.4M ceiling through 2031; fixed-price terms add margin risk.", "trigger" => "Option exercise decisions; Artemis program budget updates; potential competitive procurement for future upper stages"}

  • 👁

    {"entity" => "CIANBRO HARKINS JOINT VENTURE, LLC", "reason" => "Firm-fixed-price $59.75M Border Patrol station construction; cost overrun risk on design-build over 3 years.", "trigger" => "Project milestones; change orders; DHS border infrastructure budget reauthorization"}

  • 👁

    {"entity" => "SMITHS DETECTION, INC", "reason" => "Completed $67.7M TSA explosive detection contract; follow-on IDIQ re-compete is key revenue opportunity.", "trigger" => "TSA IDIQ re-compete solicitation; final outlay data confirmation of full $67.7M payment"}

  • 👁

    {"entity" => "Arctic Slope Regional Corporation", "reason" => "Expired $280.2M NASA IT contract; parent company must secure new awards to sustain federal revenue.", "trigger" => "New NASA contract awards at Ames Research Center; potential ACITS follow-on competition"}

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