Significant Contract Modifications ($10M+) — October 01, 2026

Nelnet's firm-fixed-price delivery order has outlaid $1.64 billion against a $983.7M base, indicating additional funding and robust demand for loan servicing. This suggests a stable, growing revenue stream through 2024.

Maximus Education's contract has outlaid $1.095 billion against a $762.1M base, suggesting additional funding or modifications. This points to strong demand for loan servicing and potential for follow-on work.

Both Nelnet and Maximus contracts expire on December 31, 2024. The upcoming re-compete will be a major catalyst for these companies, with potential for contract renewal or loss to competitors.

SAIC's $529.9M cost-plus-award-fee contract has a negative outlayed amount (-$185,723), indicating more deobligations than spending. This could signal early-stage execution or potential scope adjustments, impacting revenue recognition.

Both Education contracts are firm-fixed-price, meaning cost overruns could erode margins. With high outlays exceeding base values, there is potential for cost pressure if scope expands without corresponding price adjustments.

Both Nelnet and Maximus contracts end on December 31, 2024. If the Department of Education does not renew or recompete favorably, revenue streams could be lost, impacting financial performance.

Nelnet and Maximus Education are both heavily dependent on the Department of Education for revenue, with combined obligations of $1.75 billion. Any policy shift or budget cut could significantly impact both companies.

SAIC's contract has 267 subawards totaling $477.5 million, meaning a significant portion of the value is passed through to subcontractors, reducing SAIC's direct revenue share and potentially impacting margins.

The Department of Education's ongoing need for loan servicing is evident from the large contracts awarded to Nelnet and Maximus. With both contracts expiring in 2024, there is an opportunity for incumbents to retain or expand their scope, or for new entrants to compete.

SAIC's contract to support Air Force modeling and simulation training capabilities indicates sustained investment in defense training. As the Air Force modernizes, SAIC could see follow-on work or extensions beyond December 2025.

Advanced Technology International's $418.7M contract with BARDA for pandemic vaccine development runs through 2035, signaling a long-term commitment to biodefense. As outlays ramp up, this could provide steady revenue growth for the nonprofit and its partners.

The Department of Education awarded $1.75 billion in combined contracts to Nelnet and Maximus, highlighting the scale and stability of federal student loan servicing. This theme underscores the importance of civilian agencies as major contractors.

SAIC's $529.9M AFAMS contract reflects ongoing Air Force investment in modeling and simulation for training. This theme indicates sustained demand for engineering and technical services in defense training.

BARDA's $418.7M contract with Advanced Technology International for vaccine development signals long-term government commitment to pandemic preparedness. This theme is supported by the contract's 11-year duration.

{"entity" => "Nelnet Servicing LLC", "reason" => "Contract expires December 31, 2024; re-compete will determine future revenue.", "trigger" => "Re-compete announcement for Department of Education loan servicing"}

{"entity" => "Maximus Education LLC", "reason" => "Contract expires December 31, 2024; re-compete will determine future revenue.", "trigger" => "Re-compete announcement for Department of Education loan servicing"}

{"entity" => "Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC)", "reason" => "Negative outlayed amount on AFAMS contract may indicate execution issues or scope adjustments.", "trigger" => "Quarterly earnings reports showing revenue recognition and outlay trends"}

{"entity" => "Advanced Technology International", "reason" => "Only $1.9 million outlaid on a $418.7M contract; ramp-up is critical.", "trigger" => "Increase in outlays or new task orders from BARDA"}