Significant Contract Modifications ($10M+) — October 17, 2026

Only $100,467,801 of the $382,324,910 base-plus-options value is obligated, so option exercises through 2030-08-31 would be the principal value driver. Total outlays are $0 at the data date, so first revenue recognition after the 2026-09-01 start is the near-term test.

Firm fixed-price pricing on 24/7/365 armed transport places cost-overrun risk on the contractor, and pricing risk is rated high. Any scope change in the 287(g) program or ICE detention policy in Texas would affect the value of the award.

Roughly half of the $96,403,028 base-plus-options value is obligated, with $39,810,825 already outlaid (about 84% of obligation), indicating active performance on the Silver Spring, MD protective services delivery order through 2028-02-29.

Outlays of $23,001,710 represent about 82% of the $27,996,631 obligation, and roughly $20.0M of unobligated option value remains through a potential end of 2028-12-31, supporting multi-year fire-season revenue visibility.

Roughly 58% of the $41,833,249 base-plus-options value is obligated and about $20.1M is outlaid, with a 2028-12-31 potential end date. Revenue is seasonal and incident-driven, and the recipient's public-equity linkage is not identified in the data.

The $17,612,804 firm fixed-price delivery order covers about 41% of the $42,435,754 ceiling with $7,110,464 outlaid, and the non-small-business recipient won on full and open competition, so margin pressure from fixed pricing is a live concern.

Only $16,925 has been outlaid against the $18,424,820 time-and-materials obligation, with a 2024-10-14 end date that has already passed in the data's timeline, so either extension, recompete, or a stalled delivery order is a live question.

The firm fixed-price construction award is a pure backlog signal with no realized revenue yet, and the performance period runs to 2028-05-30 with a potential end of 2028-07-29.

The $79,063,394 cost-plus-incentive-fee award reached roughly 54% outlays ($42,854,333) but its current end date of 2022-07-31 has passed in the data, leaving extension or recompete status unverified.

GardaWorld's $382.3M potential ceiling rests on option exercises, with only $100.5M obligated and $0 outlaid, and the firm fixed-price structure concentrates cost-overrun risk on the contractor.

Civilian-only stream with no defense awards: DHS, DOL and USDA together account for a large share of the value, so policy shifts in homeland security or Job Corps funding would move a large portion of this sample.

Contracts with end dates in the data's timeline that have passed or are near, such as Management & Training Corp. (2022-07-31), University of Dayton (2024-10-14) and Red River Science & Technology (2026-11-14), lack confirmed extension or recompete status.

Data integrity flag on King Street Technology Partners' VA award, which shows a service-disabled veteran-owned set-aside alongside full and open competition, an inconsistency that could affect protest exposure.

Option exercises on large DHS and USDA awards would convert obligated-to-ceiling gaps into revenue, notably GardaWorld's remaining $282M and Triple Canopy's remaining $48.8M.

Caltech's NASA JPL delivery order is sole-source with $11.0M of $17.1M outlaid, suggesting a durable, protected research-services position.

Small business and SDVOSB set-aside awards, including BLUEWAY ONE's $48.9M VA boiler replacement, King Street's $18.7M VA mobility award and Red River's $25.1M CBP work, show a preference-protected pipeline for qualifying firms.

Three DHS awards totaling about $195M in obligations (GardaWorld, Triple Canopy, Red River) show sustained federal demand for protective and custody services, though most of this value is contingent on options.

Coulson Aviation and AERO AIR hold Forest Service airtanker delivery orders totaling about $52.5M in obligations with 2028 potential ends, supporting multi-year fire-season demand.

Management & Training Corp. and ARBOR E & T hold DOL Job Corps center operations awards totaling about $96.7M, but one award is past its end date and the other is fixed-price with high pricing risk.

GSA PBS and VA facility awards to Murnane ($32.9M), BURCHICK ($29.0M) and BLUEWAY ONE ($48.9M) show continued civilian and VA building investment, with BURCHICK already 57% outlaid.

{"entity" => "GardaWorld Federal Services LLC", "reason" => "Largest award in the stream at $100.5M obligated against a $382.3M ceiling, with $0 outlaid and high pricing risk.", "trigger" => "First outlay reporting after 2026-09-01 and option exercise announcements"}

{"entity" => "Triple Canopy Inc", "reason" => "$47.6M DHS FPS award with $39.8M outlaid and a $96.4M ceiling, indicating active performance and option upside.", "trigger" => "Option exercise toward the 2028-02-29 end date"}

{"entity" => "Coulson Aviation (USA), Inc.", "reason" => "82% outlaid on $28.0M obligation with about $20.0M of unobligated option value.", "trigger" => "Option exercise beyond the 2026-12-31 current end date"}

{"entity" => "Management & Training Corporation", "reason" => "$79.1M Job Corps award with current end date of 2022-07-31 already passed in the data.", "trigger" => "Extension, modification or recompete notice from DOL"}

{"entity" => "ARBOR E & T LLC", "reason" => "$17.6M fixed-price Job Corps delivery order with high pricing risk and roughly 41% of ceiling obligated.", "trigger" => "Option exercise and any cure or termination actions"}