Contract Deobligations Alert — October 17, 2026

GardaWorld's $100,467,801 firm fixed-price DHS/ICE award covers about 26% of a $382,324,910 base-plus-options value, and total outlays are $0 as of the data date. Value depends heavily on option exercise and fixed-price execution risk is rated high.

Coulson's $27,996,631 firm fixed-price delivery order shows $23,001,710 outlayed, and roughly $20.0M of unobligated base-plus-options value remains through a potential 2028-12-31 end date. This indicates realized work and multi-year revenue runway, though margins and aircraft counts are not disclosed.

AERO AIR's $24,457,497 obligation under a $41,833,249 base-plus-options Forest Service order runs to 2028-12-31, with $20,116,010 outlayed. Option exercise would add value, though AERO AIR is a private LLC with no identified public equity.

Akima's $15,530,739 time-and-materials NASA MSFC delivery order has $6,313,381 outlayed (about 34%) against an $18,300,000 ceiling, and pricing risk is rated high. Public status of the parent NANA Regional Corporation is not established.

ARBOR E & T's $17,612,804 firm fixed-price Treasure Island Job Corps order covers about 41% of a $42,435,754 ceiling, with $7,110,464 outlayed. Pricing risk is rated high and public listing status is unknown.

The University of Dayton's $18,424,820 GSA automation and robotics delivery order shows only $16,925 outlayed and a 2024-10-14 end date that has already passed in the data's timeline, flagging a potential execution or closeout issue.

GDIT's $14,115,496 firm fixed-price GSA BPA call covers roughly half of a $27,760,327 base-plus-options value and runs to 2028-12-12 potentially. Competition was full and open and pricing risk is low, though outlays are $0 as of the data date.

Most recipients (California Institute of Technology, University of Dayton, American Type Culture Collection, Management & Training Corporation, BLUEWAY ONE JV LLC, Triple Canopy) are nonprofit, private, or not identified as publicly traded, so direct equity read-through is minimal.

GardaWorld Federal Services LLC's $100.5M DHS/ICE award is firm fixed-price with high pricing risk and $0 outlays; execution in Texas under the 287(g) program is untested.

Several awards show stalled or missing outlays relative to obligations, including University of Dayton ($16,925 of $18.4M) and BLUEWAY ONE JV LLC ($0 of $48.9M), raising questions about performance or data lag.

Data contains inconsistencies: King Street Technology Partners' award lists a service-disabled veteran set-aside alongside full and open competition, which should be verified.

Budget trajectory cannot be confirmed for DHS, DOL, GSA, USDA, or NASA from these single-award records, so funding durability beyond current periods is unverified.

Wildfire airtanker exposure is concentrated in two Oregon-based recipients (Coulson Aviation, AERO AIR) with combined obligations of about $52.5M and seasonal, incident-driven demand.

Exercise of GardaWorld's remaining option value could expand DHS/ICE transportation revenue toward the $382.3M ceiling.

Coulson Aviation and AERO AIR could see additional USDA Forest Service obligations drawing down roughly $20.0M each of unobligated base-plus-options value.

Set-aside awards to BLUEWAY ONE JV LLC ($48.9M VA boiler replacement) and King Street Technology Partners ($18.7M VA enterprise mobility) show continued VA demand for service-disabled veteran-owned firms.

GSA PBS building repair and construction awards to Murnane Building Contractors ($32.9M) and Burchick Construction ($29.0M) reflect ongoing federal facilities spending.

DHS awards to GardaWorld ($100.5M) and Triple Canopy ($47.6M) total about $148M across detention transportation and facility protection guard services. This reflects steady civilian homeland security outsourcing rather than defense procurement.

USDA Forest Service airtanker orders to Coulson Aviation ($28.0M) and AERO AIR ($24.5M) total about $52.5M, with combined outlays of about $43.1M, signaling active fire-suppression aviation funding.

VA and GSA awards span boiler replacement ($48.9M), enterprise mobility software ($18.7M), building construction ($32.9M and $29.0M), and automation engineering ($18.4M), indicating broad civilian facilities and IT spend.

DOL Job Corps operations awards to Management & Training Corporation ($79.1M) and ARBOR E & T ($17.6M) total about $96.7M, both rated low-to-high pricing risk.

{"entity" => "GardaWorld Federal Services LLC", "reason" => "$100.5M DHS/ICE award with 26% of $382.3M ceiling obligated, high pricing risk, and $0 outlays as of data date.", "trigger" => "First outlay disclosures after 2026-09-01 start and option exercise decisions"}

{"entity" => "Coulson Aviation (USA), Inc.", "reason" => "$28.0M USDA Forest Service airtanker order with 82% outlayed and ~$20.0M unobligated option value.", "trigger" => "Option exercise or non-exercise before the 2026-12-31 current end date"}

{"entity" => "AERO AIR, LLC", "reason" => "$24.5M Forest Service airtanker obligation with $20.1M outlayed and ~$17.4M option value remaining.", "trigger" => "Option exercises and modifications before 2028-12-31"}

{"entity" => "Management & Training Corporation", "reason" => "$79.1M DOL Job Corps contract past its 2022-07-31 end date with 54% of ceiling outlaid; extension status unknown.", "trigger" => "Confirmation of extension, modification, or recompetition by DOL JCAS"}

{"entity" => "University of Dayton", "reason" => "$18.4M GSA automation award with only $16,925 outlayed against a 2024-10-14 end date already past.", "trigger" => "Closeout documentation or GSA FAS Region 5 modification"}

{"entity" => "Fiscal Year 2027 appropriations / continuing resolution", "reason" => "Awards made in the October-December window are exposed to continuing-resolution funding uncertainty across DHS, GSA, and USDA.", "trigger" => "Continuing resolution passage or FY2027 appropriations enactment"}